Use of geographic and edaphoclimatic information for the selection of soybeans for organic environments in current and future scenarios

Resumo

The objective of this work was to select soybean genotypes for different organic growing environments, based on geographic and soil climatic information and use of predictions of meteorological variables for future scenarios. The experiment was conducted in a randomized block design, in an incomplete factorial scheme, with three agricultural harvests (2019/2020, 2020/2021 and 2021/2022) x 21 environments organics x 18 conventional soybean genotypes, arranged in three replications per environment. The study was di-vided into two agricultural scenarios based on soybean grain productivity, where scenario I was based on variable data on minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, incident radiation, in addition to geographic variables such as latitude, longitude and altitude. The scenario II was predicted based on data from 2023 to 2040 through climate projections, from the INPE were used.The genotypes LIN 16, BRS 539 and IPR 115 are superior in terms of grain productivity. The BRS 511 genotype had a high genetic average, high responsiveness to improvements in the growing environment and high stability. In the current scenario, latitude, soil pH and soil organic carbon stock are determining factors for the grain yield of genotypes destined for organic management. In the future scenario, the minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures will be the basis for positioning soybeans in organic conditions. The year 2026 will be the most critical for soybean production in southern Brazil due to low precipitation and high temperatures. In this context, it is envisaged to select cultivars that tolerate hot environments and are resilient to water restrictions. To guarantee their potential, it is necessary to provide environments with high fertility, vegetation cover and minimal interspecific competition with other plant species.