Avaliação parcial de um planejamento regional do nordeste brasileiro

Resumo

With the growth of industrializationverified inthe Center-South region of Brazil, mainly in the fifties, the gaps in developmenthave widened between the Brazilian Northeast and the rest of Brazil.

The evidence of regional development gaps and inefficiency of policies adopted since the turn of the century in the Northeast brought about establishment of the Superintendencia do Desenvolvimento do Nordeste (SUDENE) in 1959.

This organization receivedwide powers for carrying out a program based on planned action, in which federal resources and foreign aid would be applied according to plans previously elaborated.

The main objective of this work was the verification of the effectiveness of SUDENE's program which is characterized by planning of public investments and incentives to private initiative.

The following objectives were proposed:

1. Verify how the monetary resources of SUDENE and foreign aid have been distributed.

2. Verify what have been the results of the applications of SUDENE's monetary resources inthe sector of infrastructure and industrialization.

3. Compare, through the use of various indicators, the situation before and after the beginning of SUDENE's work in the agricultural and industrial sectors.

The data used were from secondary sources and were obtained from official sources.

For comparison between periods, the data used was the production of the five main crops of the region, value of industrial transformation, two main regional industries, commercial sales, issuance of capital excluding reevaluation of active stock, number of students and teachers in primary education and the number of students in agricultural and industrial education (high school level).

The conceptual model of this paper considers a possibility of larger economic growth, through increase of the availability of fixed social capital and incentives to private initiative.

Simple regression equations were calculated, by the method of least squares, for verification of growth tendencies in the two periods considered, that is, before and after the beginning of SUDENE's activities.

The criterion for evaluation of the effectiveness of SUDENE's actionwasbased on the comparisonbetween an expected growth trend and the observed one, for the Northeast. The calculation of the value of the expected trend was based on the values of the regression coefficients for the rest of the country, based on the two periods and for the Northeastbased on the firstperiod. The observed trend was calculated with the values of the data used.

The biggest investments made by SUDENE from 1961 to 1966 were ininfrastructure. Of the expended foreign resources, most were spent on the sectors of infrastructure, industrialization and human resources. As to the number of industrial projectsapproved and total of predicted investments, the states of Pernambuco and Bahia were assisted the most. Considering the industrial sectors, the biggest predicted investments pertain to the sectors of chemistry, metallurgy, textiles and food products As to the number of approved industrial projects, the sectors of textiles, food products and chemical produts, cover more than 50% of the total number.

When expected and observed growth trends were compared, changes which occurred more satisfactory to the Northeast, in the production of food products, industrialization, stock issues, commercial sales, number of students in high school level industrial education and number of students in primary education. For the rest of the country, the most satisfactory changes occurred in the agricultural production of industrial raw material, teaching staff for elementary education and students in agricultural education.

With these considerations, it was concluded that after the beginning of SUDENE's woik, regional growth rate changes which have occurred indicate the effectiveness of planned action,asa means for increase of economic growth, but results havemt been more evident because of the long period of maturity of big enterprises effected.