Análise econométrica da demanda de exportação de café brasileiro
Palavras-chave:
demanda de exportação, elasticidade-preço da demanda, mercado mundial de café, oferta de café não-brasileiro, política de exportaçãoResumo
Coffee exported from Brasil to the world market, in the period from 1952 to 1973, grew at an average rate of 0.4% (1). In the same period, the average price increased at an annual average rate of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian participation in the world market dropped from 52%, in 1952, to 31%, in 1973 (13).
As demonstrated, at the same time that the participation of a country in the total world market decreases, it’s bargaining power grows (10). This situation impedes motivation for increased participation of the country in international treaties (5, 7 and 10). This evidences the necessity for analyzing the stucture of demand for exportation in relation to the share that the country contributes in the total world market.
In the present study, the elasticity of demand for Brazilian coffee in the world market and it's relation to the share of the national product being exported was estimated.
The results show that every time the Brazilian share of the world market is reduced, the elasticity of the price for export Brazilian coffee is augmented, even though it's always higher than the price elasticity of the world demand for different types of coffee.
The equation developed demonstrates that a reduction of the Brazilian share of the world market turns the demand for it's product more elastic. This means that Brazil can, within certain limits, increment it’s exportation without an appreciable effect on the international average price. This provides, in this context, an exceptional position in bargaining power.
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