Condições de equilíbrio no mercado internacional do cacau
Palavras-chave:
mercado internacional, preços instáveis, produção agrícola, elasticidade-preço, oferta e procuraResumo
Currently the Brazilian Government is looking for policy alternatives to increase cocoa production for exportation.
Some of the principal characteristics of the external cocoa market are the instability of price generated by several factors influencing the supply and demand of the product. The better knowledge of the mechanism of the prices of cocoa in the external market can contribute to estimate the results of the possible economic impact of the production expansion policy conducted by Brazil.
The specific objectives of this study are to examine the aggregate structures of supply and demand of cocoa in the international market and to determine the expansion path the product price followed in the direction of equilibrium.
The basic statistical material for analysis is from an anual series of total world supply of cocoa and of average cocoa prices in the New York market. The data refer to the period of 1925 to 1971.
The simple Cobweb model was used to examine the tendency or general form of the behaviour of prices and utilization. The method orthodox least squares was used to estimate the parameters of the supply and demand equations.
The analysis of the results indicates that the world market of cocoa tends to represent a natural exposive cobweb model, which is a response to the high price elasticity of supply (Eps - 0.219) relative to the price elasticity of demand (Epa - 0.001).
The conclusion, although carryihg some limitations in the analysis made, is that the cocoa market structure of supply and demand represents a role of extreme relevance in the determination of the level and stabilization of prices in the international market. Global politicies of supply expansion should seriously consider the possible impact on the price and foreign exchange obtained from that increase. Meanwhile, a unilateral program directed only by Brazil but supported unilateral program directed only by Brazil but supported by world cocoa agreement of yearly storage would favor a subs tantial increase in Brazils' foreign exchange
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