Estrutura da demanda de arroz, ao nível de atacado, no município de Santarém, Pará, em 1969

Resumo

This study is concerned with the several variables influencing the demand for rice at the wholesale level in the Município of Santarém, state of Pará, Brazil. Santarém is the principal producing center of the state and also a terminal for the production of the other regions in the Amazonas Valley. The study was conducted in order to determine the demand elasticity of rice in the long and short run. A census was conducted among the wholesalers that operate in the rice market in the above mentioned município, including the Rice Producers Cooperative of Santarém.

The Koyck-Nervolian model was applied to demand equations that have as the dependent variable the quantity of rice acquired in the wholesale market and as independent variables the the lagged quantity of rice, the price of rice at the wholesale level, disposable income of the purchaser, an artificial variable, and a trend variable. The variable of lagged quantity of rice is introduced with the main objective of deriving equations of long run demand.

The selected adjusted model was consistent with empirical knowledge and gave the best explanation of the demand for rice at the wholesale market of Santarém. It represents the variables of lagged quantity and price in the logarithmic form and the other variables in linear form. The coeficients of partial regression are all statisticaly different from zero at the 0.01 probability level and the price elasticities of demand in the short and long run were of about 2.1 and 4.1 respectively.